It was another cold evening Friday but at least the daylight was lingering a little longer and we didn’t have to move from Jack’s parking lot into the pub in the dark.
We had a ritual at our little Friday afternoon happy hour, and some rules.
Rule One: A limit of two hard liquor drinks, two glasses of wine and three beers unless the alcohol content was above 8 percent, then two. Given how old all of us were we didn’t want to take a chance on driving while impaired, not so much because of the threat of arrest but because we didn’t want to hurt anyone.
Rule Two: By a vote we pick the top news story of the week to talk about and if one us has some expertise in the area, they’d lead the discussion.
Rule Three: Truth and facts are desirable and should always be sought but not at the expense of a good story.
This Friday the vote was unanimous. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution has power and that Congress, pathetic though it might currently be, has a role to play in our adherence to it. That point was made in telling one Donald J. Trump that he did not, in fact, have the authority to impose tariffs willy-nilly and destroy the economies of not only our nation but others around the world.
The president-in-decline was not happy. He did everything but roll on the floor, kick his feet and turn red in denouncing the Court.
Given our Midwest county depends on agriculture to drive its economic engine, we turned to Dean Etheridge, studier of agriculture in college, farmer and extension agent.
“So, can we get back to farming,” someone asked Dean after drinks were served.
He took a swallow of his Guiness and said “No.” We waited for more.
Dean wiped his sleeve across his face and addressed the group.
“First, Trump has said he’s going to fart around with a global tariff that could go as high as 15 percent and doesn’t need the approval of Congress for 180 days. So, it ain’t over. You’d think it would be, but it’s not.
“Second, the damage he has done is not something a farmer, particularly a small farmer, can recover from in one planting cycle. Hell, even the big corporate farms can’t just act like this never happened.
“You may recall that when Trump went on his tear against China in his first term and put tariff’s on soybeans, China quit buying. Instead they began buying from Brazil. There was some bounce back under Biden, but then came Trump again and this time he was bat-shit crazy.
“When he announced new tariffs exports went in the tank then last Fall Trump and China negotiated a deal to boost Chinese buying,
“There was a bit of a jump in exports. But it was nothing like pre-Trump tariffs or during the Biden years. and our prices still are higher than Brazil’s so there isn’t going to be any jump in our bean exports any time soon. I think we’ve lost most of that market to Brazil for a long, long time.
“If you want to see how this hits us, our county soybean crop last year had a value of more than $16 million but that was only if we could sell it. Corn in our county had a value of more than $33 million. We can still sell more corn than beans, but basically a lot of our value is on paper. There aren’t transactions to turn it into money.
“Now, let’s assume all of a sudden international markets for beans open up. All of the things a farmer needs to grow beans – seeds, fertilizer, fuel, equipment depreciation, labor – that’s all gone up since Trump took office and it’s not coming down.
“What this means is that even if markets open up, a farmer’s profit margin is going down. In fact, I’d argue that farmers who sell beans in the next year could take a net loss per bushel.
“I have to suspect other businesses may face a similar dilemma but for farmers this has been a fatal year. Farmers are going under. Farmers who voted for Trump didn’t realize, I guess, that voting for him even after he talked up tariffs during the campaign was economic suicide. Now they do. But it’s done.”
There was a pause while the second round of drinks came.
“So,” Wilbur asked, “you are saying this decision, coupled with maybe some kind of tariff for at least 180 days, means farmers are basically screwed and since we are a rural county, we are worse than screwed.”
“Pretty much,” Dean said. “Small farmers have been getting screwed for the last four decades but this goes beyond everyday screwing. Right now, as we sit here, farmers are thinking about going into the fields, on paper. They won’t plow for another month, depending on weather, but right now they have to decide if the investment in seeds, fertilizer, fuel is even going to be worth. I’d say not for beans. Maybe corn. Maybe give some fields a year off and do some hay.”
It was quiet around the table. We all have some tie to farms in this county, even if we live in town and never have turned the key on a tractor. It’s been a dismal year with merchants up and down the street seeing a loss in sales. I guess some of us thought when the Supreme Court ruling came down there might be something to celebrate.
And I suppose there is. In 180 days Congress will have to approve an extension of whatever Trump ends up putting in place. That means mid-terms will be heating up. We have a Republican congressman up for reelection and an US senator. When that vote comes to the floor it’s going to be interesting to see where they think their futures lie – with Donald J. Trump or all of us out here in corn, bean, cattle and hog country.
I guess we also can celebrate that even if it’s not a new dawn tomorrow for farmers, at least a lot of other businesses may be able to plan, and survive.
By the time we got done mumbling about the tariffs, with a little Epstein and ICE tossed in, we’d all hit our drink limit and Sam said “I move we adjourn.” So we did. – Sterling Fields